Trading Command Center

RISK-ON

Capital Allocation — Theiler Trust

$2,847,500

Market Regime

Current Regime
GOLDILOCKS
BTC > 20 EMA
20 EMA > 50 EMA
Fear/Greed: 28
USD Weakening

Watchlist & Scenarios

Ticker Price Trigger Action
CRCL $95.40 Gap fill to $80-90 WATCH
BTC $83,250 Above $80K support HOLD
ETH $1,920 Below $2K — accumulate BUY
SOL $128 x402 volume confirms HOLD
GLD $292 42 Macro: LONG Max HOLD
XLE $89.50 Iran resolution = sell WATCH

Key Indicators

BTC Dominance
54.2%
↑ Favors BTC over alts
Fear & Greed
28
Extreme Fear = Contrarian Buy
DXY (Dollar)
103.2
Weakening = Risk-On
VIX
18.5
Normal range
10Y Yield
4.28%
Watch for >4.5%
Oil (WTI)
$78.40
Iran premium fading

ACIS Framework (Coutts)

V1: Stablecoins Win 73%
V2: Blockchains Used 52%
V3: Public Chains Win 43%
16.3%
Composite Probability

Holdings Breakdown

Symbol Sector Value % of Total P&L

📋 What To Do When...

✅ BTC breaks above $85K
Action: Add to SOL/ETH positions. Reduce cash to 5%.
🚨 BTC drops below $58K
Action: EXIT all alts. Move to BTC + stables only. Regime shift.
⚠️ Fear & Greed < 20
Action: Contrarian buy zone. DCA into BTC/ETH.
✅ CRCL drops to $80-90
Action: Open position. 3-5% of portfolio. Gap-fill entry.
🚨 VIX spikes above 30
Action: Reduce equity exposure. Increase cash/gold.
⚠️ Iran conflict resolves
Action: Rotate from energy (XLE) to software/tech.
✅ x402 volume 2x in 30 days
Action: Increase SOL allocation. V2 confirming.
🚨 DXY breaks above 108
Action: Risk-off. Reduce all risk assets.
⚠️ 42 Macro signals LONG BTC
Action: Systematic confirmation. Add to BTC aggressively.
Last Updated: | Data sources: 42 Macro, Steno, CoinGecko, Schwab